(Updated February 2^nd)

Overall developments:

I feel this first round is getting harder and harder to project. The reason I do feel that way is threefold:

(1) The quarterback class is neither great at the top nor deep behind the only with a first-round grade (Stafford and Sanchez). I bet Stafford and Sanchez will be taken in the first round but after those picks it will take a while before the next QB is picked (potentially Josh Freeman in the second if not a team reaches a whole lot at the bottom of the first).

(2) The hype that has surrounded the offensive tackle class is fading. Michael Oher has questions surrounding his ability as a pass blocker and those questions didn’t get answered in Mobile during Senior Bowl week. André Smith is appears overweight and appear to have feet that are to sluggish to be a solid blind-side protector. Eugene Monroe is therefore rising almost by default. I’m beginning to think Mike Mayock is right – the best left tackle prospect may be Jason Smith. If that’s true we may not see such an early run on OT’s as most experts had predicted.

(3) The defensive end class isn’t great either. While there are a number of players with potential such as Brian Orakpo, Everette Brown and Aaron Maybin all are little on the small side to be pure 4-3 rushers in most systems. They may be solid as 3-4 OLB’s but there’s not much proof of it on tape. All are flashy and has potential but are they looks to be real good or are they the next Manny Lawson? I think the high risk of a bust happening will cause teams to pass on these players – especially since they might find others in the second round that have similar ability (like for example Larry English).

I’ve just read a solid piece of investigation at WalterFootball.com, in which Matt McGuire points out that the 33 players that have been picked 1^st to 3rd in drafts from 1998 to 2008, was playing the following positions.

Quarterback – 14, Wide receiver – 5, Offensive tackle – 5, Defensive end – 5, Runningback – 2, Defensive tackle – 1, Linebacker – 1

If you couple my three reason (weak QB class, not as good a an OT class as we thought, rather weak defensive end class at the top) with the statistics brought forward by McGuire the first round becomes real hard to project and we might see a fair amount of reaches.

1. Detroit Lions – Matthew Stafford, QB, Oklahoma

Is Stafford a bona fide # 1 overall pick? I would say no. However, not many players are in this draft and that essentially makes it hard for the Lions. Detroit desperately needs a new face of the franchise and without a solid signal-caller this team will never turn their epic failures around. Matthew Stafford has a great arm and enough physical tools to make it at the next level. It remains to be seen if he’s got the making of a great passer when it comes to awareness. At Georgia he was errant and unspectacular at times which isn’t a good sign of what lies ahead. The other way to go would perhaps be to pick a tackle. In the last few weeks the bona fide tackles have taken quite a hit with questions arising on Michael Oher’s pass protection skills and intelligence, André Smiths ability to play left tackle in the pros. At this point I don’t feel there are a consensus #1 OT and certainly not a consensus 1^st overall OT to be picked. Furthermore, I think the Lions could look up a pretty good tackle with their 1.20 or 2.01 picks. Right now it doesn’t look like they’ll get a shot at a QB with great upside in these slots so Stafford will be the choice.

Previous pick (1/26): Matthew Stafford

2. St. Louis Rams - Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech

This is a team in need of defensive reinforcements and an upgraded o-line. While it has appeared like an offensive tackle would be the obvious choice I’m starting to buy into the notion of the Rams thinking otherwise. There is a whole deal of tackles to be picked with their next pick. Why not go BPA here instead of spending a fortune on a wild-card at tackle? The obvious BPA here is Michael Crabtree and he would instantly upgrade the WR corps which will help in the future since the Rams being a dome team and all needs to be able to pass the ball effectively. Crabtree is a player of the same caliber as Houston’s André Johnson and if you get a chance on talent such as that you go ahead and make the pick. Some may argue that in order to pass the ball we need an o-line that can block for us? While that’s completely true I don’t think anyone of the projected top tackles offer that “can’t miss”-feeling that the Rams would want here and while Eugene Monroe appears to be a very good left tackle prospect he’s cannot be compared to Crabtree.

Previous pick (1/26): Michael Oher

3. Kansas City Chiefs – Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia

Coupled, with the Detroit pick this pick will somewhat define this draft. If this indeed were the scenario I the Chiefs are left with two main options. With Stafford gone do they select Mark Sanchez here whether or not they believe he’s worthy of a #3 overall selection? I think not. I believe Scott Pioli realizes that this is a football team that has some talented younger players but is a team that needs a couple of years to gain respectability, Such a team that needs to be built fundamentally sound, starting by adding players to the defensive side and offensive line. This has nothing to do with the fact that Pioli not having a track record of picking QB’s, because you simply don’t have to do that when you have Drew Bledsoe and Tom Brady around. I think Pioli values the QB value as one of the main reasons for success but I don’t think he sees Sanchez as the guy this team needs. So what are the options? Defense? A lot of draft pundits have the Chiefs selecting Brian Orakpo. I’m not sure why. The Chiefs pass rush has been awful yes but in all likelihood Pioli will try to fix that by switching to a 3-4 system and in my opinion Orakpo is far from a sure thing as a 3-4 OLB and he’s certainly not a 3-4 DE. I believe Orakpo is a bit of a workout warrior and while he may be an excellent choice for a 4-3 team in need of an edge rusher he’s no match here and would represent a reach. The only other player I see from the pool of defensive players is B.J. Raji. He might be a solid 3-4 NT anchoring the line in the newly installed defensive system. A 3-4 team needs a Casey Hampton, Jamal Williams type of player. Raji is drawing praise at the Senior Bowl and could be a solid choice here. In the end though I think the Chiefs will solidify their o-line even more. The o-line of the Chiefs had been dominant for a decade just a few years back. I think they’re looking to further enhance the line and why not couple Branden Albert with former college teammate Eugene Monroe and you have a great left side that a lot of team executives would sacrifice their left hand for.

Previous pick (1/26): Eugene Monroe

4. Seattle Seahawks – Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State

I might be guilty of overrating Chris Wells but with the Seahawks shocked that the Rams indeed picked Michael Crabtree (that would have been picked here if available) they need to think about picking up a tackle that eventually could take over for Walter Jones. I think questions about the ability of André Smith and Michael Oher to play left tackle at the next level will make them slide some. The Seahawks need an offensive infusion and if it’s not Crabtree I’ll bet they’ll take a hard look at Chris Wells.

Previous pick (1/26): Michael Crabtree

5. Cleveland Browns – Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest

With Chris Wells not around this gets a lot easier and Cleveland definitely needs to upgrade their defensive, especially the linebacker crew and secondary. The only true options if they decide to strengthen their defense are LB Aaron Curry and CB Malcolm Jenkins. I think they decide on a young leader to their defense in Curry in the end.

Previous pick (1/26): Chris Wells

6. Cincinnati Bengals – Jason Smith, OT, Baylor

Cincinnati benefits from teams picking earlier passing on offensive tackles. They need an elite offensive tackle to protect Carson Palmer more than anything. I think we’ll see Jason Smith out of Baylor rise and be the next best left tackle prospect after Eugene Monroe. Smith may need to gain some weight and add to his strength but he’s got great feet and that will be what the Bengals are looking for. Great feet is a quality that I think will be lacking when it comes to André Smith and Michael Oher. I got some heat earlier for calling the Bengals defense “a mess” when apparently they were world-beaters… Granted their defense didn’t perform badly enough for me to make such a remark but I’m still not convinced that hi unit is good enough especially not at linebacker but there’s no one here that represent enough value to be picked over Jason Smith.

Previous pick (1/26): André Smith

7. Oakland Raiders - Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi

Who in their right mind try to pretend they know what Al Davis will do? It may still happen that Big Al falls in love with a player that has a great combine workout but I think Jeremy Maclin that I had here previously is too much of a reach even for Big Al so I’ve sort of come to my senses. If Crabtree had been available they would have gone that route. I think they go for one of Oher or André Smith but I don’t know who at this point. I lean towards Michael Oher since he’s more of a left tackle prospect and JaMarcus Russell would benefit the most from that way, although none of them are sure things as blindside protectors. A pass rusher is also a possibility.

Previous pick (1/26): Jeremy Maclin

8. Jacksonville Jaguars – Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State

Jacksonville has two ways to go here. Either they pick up a tackle to take some heat of David Garrard (who looked mediocre under heavy pressure all season) or they strengthen their defense by adding a cornerback (a need that they’ve had for years) or another dominant DT to take over for since long departed Marcus Stroud. Essentially three players come to mind André Smith, Malcolm Jenkins or B.J. Raji. I think Malcolm Jenkins is the pick. Jacksonville but they’ll be very tempted to pick B.J. Raji.

Previous pick (1/26): Malcolm Jenkins

9. Green Bay Packers – B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College

The Packers would have loved to be able to pick Malcolm Jenkins and let him take over for Charles Woodson at CB (recently moved to FS). In this scenario that’s not an option and they face the choice of adding a DE to bolster their pass rush or to add an intimidating presence (read B.J. Raji) inside to help them stop the run. I would have thought that the Packers would have picked a DE if Brian Orakpo or Michael Johnson would have been convincing choices. They have not impressed recently and I don’t think Ted Thompson is in love with the thought of picking one of them. Instead I think the Packers would be thrilled to welcome B.J. Raji to Wisconsin the way he has performed during Senior Bowl week. Raji offers the ability to wreak havoc in the backfield and can stop the run as well as offer pressure on the passer. Solid choice and good value here. That especially is true since the Packers recently hired Dom Capers to run the defense, and Capers is a 3-4 disciple.

Previous pick (1/26): B.J. Raji

10. San Francisco 49ers – Mark Sanchez, QB, USC

I think the Niners will be pressed to go for a quarterback here if Stafford or Sanchez is available and why not? Mike Singletary will likely have the itch to go for a defensive guy like Aaron Curry but in the end a possible franchise quarterback is what this team needs and haven’t had since the Montana-Young days. The other options are Curry, Maualuga or Laurinaitis in my eyes or the addition of Jason Smith as a future left tackle.

Previous pick (1/26): Mark Sanchez

11. Buffalo Bills – Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas

The Bills to me are like vanilla (as in they have not got qualities that really distinguish them from others). Apart from Marshawn Lynch nothing about this team is truly great or bad and thus they could go in a number of directions. In this scenario the Bills have a choice of going for an upgrade of their most glaring weaknesses and upgrade the o-line or d-line. Trent Edwards was either injured or less prolific as a passer during the season in many ways can that be related to the failures of the o-line as a whole. The Bills also lack a pass-rushing presence. With the cream of the crop of left tackle prospects gone ( I consider André Smith more of a right tackle in the NFL and I think that’ll show in workouts) I see the Bills going for Brian Orakpo who adds a certain athleticism that the Bills DE’s lacks.

Previous pick (1/26): Jason Smith

12. Denver Broncos – Rey Maualuga, LB, USC

Denver needs a lot of help on defense and I think they would have hoped B.J. Raji was here but he is a riser and is gone at this point. One thing that needs to be kept in mind is that with Josh McDaniels the HC and Mike Nolan the DC the switch to a 3-4 defense is imminent. For that the Bills need linebackers in particular. Even though he didn’t impress me greatly during Senior Bowl week Rey Maualuga is still a great 3-4 LB prospect. And a player the Broncos could build their defense around. Secondary enforcements aren’t as appealing (especially with Taylor Mays going back to school) as the linebackers are in this scenario.

Previous pick (1/26): B.J. Raji

13. Washington Redskins – André Smith, OT, Alabama

Washington could go for a linebacker or a DT if someone great was to be found. I do think they need help at tackle first and foremost and with right tackle being their greatest need in the immediate future I think André Smith is a natural choice. He may or may not be able to slide over to the left side later in his career but he would be a great right tackle from the start and would help Clinton Portis out a lot. Peria Jerry and James Laurinaitis are the alternatives.

Previous pick (1/26): Rey Maualuga

14. New Orleans Saints – Brian Cushing, LB, USC

With Jonathan Vilma a free-agent and a constant need of upgrading the defense Cushing would be a solid choice here. He looked great during Senior Bowl and was more fluid than I did expect. I think he could play all linebacker positions and be an upgrade over what the Saints have got. New Orleans needs more quality on defense and Cushing offers them just that. The other solid option here would be James Laurinaitis or a cornerback but I don’t see them going for a CB here unless the like Vontae Davis a lot.

Previous pick (1/26): James Laurinaitis

15. Houston Texans - Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois

Houston needs to address their cornerback shortcomings (especially if Dunta Robinson departs) by selecting Vontae Davis here if he’s available. The other options here would be to select another pass-rusher (Everette Brown or Michael Johnson) to pair with Mario Williams or Knowshon Moreno. Given the way Steve Slaton performed I think the latter option is the least likely. In the end Davis qualities and the need of another cornerback is too great to pass up in a division where the Colts are still the team to beat.

Previous pick (1/26): Vontae Davis

16. San Diego Chargers – Everette Brown, OLB, Florida State

Last year it became evident that the San Diego linebackers aren’t good enough to turn their version of the 3-4 into a high-caliber defense. While an inside linebacker would likely be the best choice I think they will be looking towards a player that can add a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Everette Brown has that special ability hat players like DeMarcus Ware and Shawne Merriman possess. Pairing Brown with Merriman (if healthy) would be scary for Jay Cutler, JaMarcus Russell and whoever will be quarterbacking for the Chiefs. They could also look to add James Laurinaitis.

17. New York Jets - Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia

With Rex Ryan in town expect him to focus on defense and establishing a solid run game on offense to be able to control the clock. For that you need an extraordinary runner and Knowshon Moreno is a great pick here. Moreno slides because RB isn’t a massive need for the teams picking earlier. The Jets will not pass on Moreno with Thomas Jones nearing the end of his career. If a team wants Moreno they better move up past the 17^th pick. Everyone keeps arguing the Jets need to go elsewhere (CB or LB). I don’t see it if Moreno is here. Which LB or CB is better? I could only think of two (or three) possible options – ILB James Laurinaitis or OLB Larry English/Aaron Maybin.

Previous pick (1/26): Knowshon Moreno

18. Chicago Bears – Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri

It’s hard to imagine but the Bears, in addition to the yearly issue of needing more offensive players, need to address their defense and the lack of pass rush effort shown last year. Matt Forte proved to be a great pick last year and Kyle Orton appeared to be a steady quarterback (which is good enough for the Bears). In order to make this an even better offense they need to make life easier for Forte and Orton. I think they are in need of talent at receiver and a player that can stretch the field could help this offense out a whole lot. Jeremy Maclin is that kind of player. Maclin would force opposing defenses to cover deep which in turn makes the short passing game (Greg Olsen) and running for Forte much easier. I say they focus on defensive enforcements later on.

Previous pick (1/26): Everette Brown

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss

Tampa needs a quarterback for the future but there isn’t one worthy of a pick here. They could also need a wide receiver or a defensive lineman. Depending on what Raheem Morris wants I think he sees the need to stop the running game of Carolina and Atlanta. It’s not an easy call with players like Kenny Britt, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Percy Harvin available but I think Peria Jerry fits the Bucs D extremely well. They pick him up and hear screams of frustration form the Colts war room. Some draft pundits have the Bucs reaching desperately for Josh Freeman. I don’t think the will.

Previous pick (1/26): Peria Jerry

20. Detroit Lions (from Cowboys) – William Beatty, OT, Connecticut

In the last draft I had the Lions pick up a sliding Brian Orakpo. In this version he’s gone at this point. Since the Lions picked up Matt Stafford their most glaring need is to find someone that can protect their investment and if they don’t love a defensive end here I think they have to look at offensive tackle here. William Beatty might be the best blindside protector around at this point. He’s got great feet and more than adequate quickness for the position. He may need to add some bulk and get stronger but he’s got a lot of upside. If they indeed do pick QB and OT with their first-rounders they will be doing the right thing for the first time in years. Yes, this team has plenty of other needs but why not focus on first and foremost trying to build a respectable offense from this draft. This team will still take years to rebuild but if they make Stafford a decent quarterback and strengthen their o-line for coming years they’ve at least moved in the right direction.

Previous pick (1/26): Brian Orakpo

21. Philadelphia Eagles – Alex Mack, C, California

Well, the Eagles need a solid tackle to take over for Jon Runyan and left of the tackles to be considered at this spot are Eben Britton and Phil Loadholt. I’ve been convinced Loadholt is a fringe 1^st round player at best and Britton offers great pass blocking qualities but he does not fit the physically imposing mold Andy Reid wants of an offensive lineman. Instead I think the Eagles will look at the offensive line BPA or Brandon Pettigrew to replace the ever disappointing/injured L.J. Smith. While Pettigrew would be a great pick they could get the best center prospect in years in Cal’s Alex Mack. They would then have to re-shuffle their line some, moving Jamaal Jackson to guard and moving Shawn Andrews to right tackle if he comes back healthy.

Previous pick (1/26): Phil Loadholt, OT, Oklahoma

22. Minnesota Vikings – D.J. Moore, CB, Vanderbilt

Minnesota desperately needs a new QB but there isn’t a good one representing value here. I’m simply not buying them picking Josh Freeman here after the Tarvaris Jackson experiment even if many project they will. I think they need to either look for an offensive playmaker at WR or a CB to start alongside Antoine Winfield. Defense is supposed to be a strength of the Vikes and despite Winfield they’re giving up a lot of yards through the air. With there not being a single great WR here and the Vikes still having Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice I think they’ll look at a playmaker like D.J. Moore as a starting cornerback. If Alex Mack or a top offensive tackle would have been available here they might have opted to draft another lineman.

Previous pick (1/26): Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland

23. New England Patriots – Larry English, OLB, Northern Illinois

I had William Moore here but after his lackluster performance he may not be as good as advertised but I still see him as the top SS, just representing a bit too much of a reach here. I think (and hope) the Patriots will add players to their defense to go for another SB title. On offense they’ve got enough with Brady back but the defense has fallen behind with age. There’s no need for any kind of degree in football to figure out the Pats needs. Primarily they need to look for secondary players. There maybe a couple of safeties to look at here but most of them are FS types like and that’s the type of players the Patriots do have. After D.J. Moore I doubt there is a corner worth the pick here (maybe just maybe Darius Butler of Connecticut after a solid Senior Bowl). I think they’ll look for a typical Patriots player and at a position still filled with first-round talent. Either they go for James Laurinaitis to couple him with Jerod Mayo and have a fabulous set of ILB’s to their 3-4 for the next decade. Laurinaitis is just that kind of player ad person the Patriots covet. However, in the end I think they need to realize that what they need the most is to put more pressure on the passer. They need a truly explosive player at OLB to dominate and help out and eventually take over for Matt Vrabel and Larry English is a fabulous choice and a typical Pats pick. He’s a great character kid, compassionate about the game, never-ending motor and a willingness to work endlessly to get better. What I saw out of English in Mobile impressed me a lot and there’s no question he’ll be able to play the 3-4 as an OLB. I think he’s a better choice than Aaron Maybin at this point. The key in the Pats defense are different looks and versatile linebackers and if they add another one here that can be a difference-maker they’ve come a long way in rebuilding their aging LB corps. With two picks in the 2^nd round they can tend to corner and safety later and there will be solid players still there at those positions.

Previous pick (1/26): William Moore, SS, Missouri

24. Atlanta Falcons - Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State

I think Atlanta’s defense failed them down the stretch and while they could use another CB badly they could also look to strengthen their defensive line or add another weapon for Matt Ryan. I see no top notch defensive tackle available at this point (not worthy of a 1^st round pick) and therefore I think Atlanta will look in the direction of CB and find Darius Butler out of Connecticut sitting there. On the other end there’s the best TE in this class, Brandon Pettigrew. In the end I think the Falcons will realize what Pettigrew would give them and choose him. Matt Ryan would have a player to find in the medium range passing game and Pettigrew is as impressive as a blocker which will give the running game and Michael Turner a boost.

Previous pick (1/26): D.J. Moore

25. Miami Dolphins – Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut

Miami had hoped a cornerback would be here and if this scenario were to be true they would hate seeing D.J. Moore go to Atlanta. They could pass on the remaining CBs and go for a player like Tyson Jackson from LSU who would be perfect as a 3-4 DE. However, If Darius Butler can keep doing what he did in Mobile during the Senior Bowl week he might be too good to pass up for a team that faces the Patriots aerial attack twice every year.

Previous pick (1/26): Darius Butler

26. Baltimore Ravens – Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers

It was apparent that the Ravens need to add more playmakers in order to be a little more creative on offense. I had Percy Harvin her earlier but I’m thinking the Ravens would like a bigger receiver for Flacco like Kenny Britt. There’s no great cornerback available or else that might have been the choice.

Previous pick (1/26): Percy Harvin, WR, Florida

27. Philadelphia Eagles (from Panthers) – LeSean McCoy, RB, Pittsburgh

Do the Eagles still pass on Eben Britton at this point? Yes I think so. The Eagles are a very vulnerable team at RB since Westbrook is the only true game-breaking option they’ve got. I think the Eagles need to find a consistent runner to spell Westbrook and eventually take over for him. With LeSean McCoy sitting here this is a great pick for the Eagles. He’s a potential steel in my eyes. I think the Eagles could potentially look for another lineman but if McCoy is here I say they make the call.

Previous pick (1/26): LeSean McCoy

28. Indianapolis Colts – Max Unger, C-OL, Oregon

The Colts need help inside and while Jeff Saturday is still a great center he’s aging and Unger could be groomed to be a great successor. Unger’s greatest quality is that he’s able to play almost any position on the o-line and the Colts need immediate help at guard. Their running game was pitiful last year and adding Unger would be one step in the right direction.

29. New York Giants – James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State

Giants need a big receiver (which was apparent after Plaxico Burress “shot himself in the foot” literally speaking) but I don’t think they’re looking for burners like Hakeem Nicks or Darrius Heyward-Bey. If Kenny Britt would have been here they would have given him a long hard look. However, the Giants need more pure linebacking talent (they’ve got a sea of pass rushers) and James Laurinaitis is a great player with an elite character.

Previous pick (1/26): Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers

30. Tennessee Titans – Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland

Every year we notice their weakness at WR. I think they are tired of it and with a great running game and a solid line how about giving Kerry Collins some targets to stretch the field? Like we saw in the playoffs opposing team will just stack the run and challenge Collins to beat them with his arm and with this group of receiver you’re not sure to bet on the Titans in such a situation. I think they like Darrius Byword-Hey out of Maryland here. They could also look to add Hakeem Nicks out of North Carolina but I feel he’s a bit overhyped to be honest.

Previous pick (1/26): Max Unger, OL, Oregon

31. Arizona Cardinals – Eben Britton, OT

Mike Gandy has done an admirable job but keep in mind that the Cardinals high powered offense at times struggled mightily during the season when facing a heavy pass rush. It was also evident that Gandy’ feet aren’t great in the Superbowl. He was called for holding three times but it could have been 10. This team needs to be a steadier team and a could be a perennial NFC contender if they make the right choices. Firstly they will need to make sure they’re able to stop a freakish pass rush since their offense is somewhat one-dimensional (I expect the Steelers to show the Cards what a fierce pass rushing team will do to their offense). Secondly they need to help out Warner by continuing to be able to run the ball like they’ve done in the playoffs. I think they’ll turn to local college hero Eben Britton who could end up being a very good left tackle for them for years to come. Other possibilities is to add a bit of spark to the defense by adding a great rush linebacker/defensive end perhaps but Britton makes too much sense to me to believe defense will be a priority.

Previous pick (1/26): Eben Britton, OT, Arizona

32. Pittsburgh Steelers – Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU

The Steelers offensive line got better as the season progressed but the fact remains that the Steelers need to invest in players to make their line better. They need to be able to run the ball and a player like Duke Robinson could be interesting here. I think the Steelers might find upgrades to their line later on though and let’s not forget that they have a cup of players that come back from injury Kendall Simmons and Max Starks. A player like Tyson Jackson sitting here – being perfect for a 3-4 - will be far too tempting to pass up so I say they pick another piece to their future defense so that they won’t miss a beat when Aaron Smith and Brett Keisel age mercilessly (which isn’t too far away.

Previous pick (1/26): Duke Robinson